Expected Value [EV] Theory

Jonathan Little’s Excelling at No-Limit Hold’em: Leading poker experts discuss how to study, play. To develop a working poker strategy, it's crucial to understand the interaction between players, the odds, and the advantages of table position. There are many different poker games, but aside from some play differences, some strategies remain the same.

Expected Value (EV) in Poker is a very misunderstood concept. Our intention here is to explain “expected value” as simply as possible and to make you a better poker player by using expected value theory in your decision making process. Without going into a technical definition here is an example of an event that will have a zero expected value over time (EV = 0.00) so as to make this idea clear in your mind. Let’s say I asked you to pick a number between one and twenty and that each time you got it right I would pay you $20. You would expect to be able to correctly guess the number once out of every twenty tries. If I were to charge you $1 for each guess and you guessed at the number millions of times then the expected value under these circumstances would be zero. You would win $20 every twenty tries and since it would cost you $1 each try you would end up winning $20 for each $20 you gambled. If on the other hand I charged you more than a dollar for each guess you would be silly to bet against me (your expected value would be negative) and if I charged you less than a dollar for each guess then you would want to play against me all day long for the rest of your life. To put this idea into gambling terms you know that in Roulette there are 36 numbers and usually a 0 and even a 00 on a table. Clearly your EV would be zero if the casino paid you 37 to one (plus your original bet back) or 38 to one in total but in fact they give you 35 to one on your bet (and your bet back) so your expected value to make money over time is negative. And that is assuming you are betting on only one number for each spin. If you bet on multiple numbers on the same spin of the wheel then your expected value is even worse.

OK now you have a feeling for what we are talking about. How does all this relate to playing Texas Holdem? Glad you asked. In Texas Holdem the expected value of your first two cards depend on the cards you have, your position on the table, and the number of players at the table. In other words you will be happy to know that in the dealer position (on the button) pocket aces yield an EV of 2.96 when there are ten players at the table. This data is based on real data compiled over millions of hands and in real money games. So in the case of our AA in the dealer spot it goes without saying that you will make loads of money with pocket aces. Course we have all lost pocket aces but more often than not we will win the hand and if you have ever played Texas No Limit Holdem then you know that going all in pre-flop with pocket aces is the only time you can be sure to have the one up on all other players in the hand before you have seen a single card. It is expected value theory in Texas Holdem that can help you make a decision to go all in pre-flop (or not). Sometimes you are in a Texas Holdem Tournament and you are running out of chips and it is time to make a bold play (like the all in play). Wouldn’t you rather make a decision that at least you know that in the long run you have a positive expected value with a given hand and not a negative expected value? Sometimes it is just this little difference and this little bit of information that can help you stay in the Tournament until you are in the money as opposed to busting out early. We have taken the liberty to give you all the expected value data for 10 players all the way down to 2 players so that you can make an educated decision in the game at the crucial time instead of gambling blind on any two cards that are yours to play. Ultimately the all in play is the one situation the more talented Texas Hold’em players prefer to avoid in a pre-flop situation (unless they have pocket aces) and by using the all in strategy you will be able to improve your standing in a Texas Holdem Tournament without seeing a flop (hopefully). This is assumed that nobody calls your all in and that you pick up the blinds without a challenge.

As a rule the better the expected value of your first two cards in Texas Holdem the better the chances of you eventually winning the hand. In other words if you have an EV of 1.00 your bet in this situation will get you much more money more often than not as represented by such a strong expected value. You must note that even hands with an EV greater than 1.0 will lose sometimes. But in the long run you will make money with them. Actually the hands with an EV = 0.00 will break even over time so we suggest that you play the two first cards with a positive expected value as often as you can (depending on the situation). If you are in the dealer position with JJ and three people have gone all in for more chips than you have in total and it is your turn to play then you should fold immediately since there is a good probability that someone has a better hand and even though the EV of JJ in the dealer position is 0.89 you have to know that you are up against some very powerful hands.

In the above example we gave you the expected value of JJ in the dealer position in a ten player game. Below you will note the expected value of hands in a ten player game in the dealer position:

If you habitually play hands with large negative expected values you should not be surprised that you are losing more than you win. For example here are some seemingly good and bad starting hands in Texas Holdem and their associated negative expected values (in a ten handed game in the dealer position).

To show you the difference position makes in expected value please note below the same hands in the big blind position for a ten handed game:

In other words in the big blind an 8 7 off suit is much worse (you will lose much more money over time playing this hand) than in the dealers position.

Please send all your comments and questions about expected value to info@texasholdemgame.com. Enjoy Online Texas Holdem and play smart!

One of the biggest keys to your success in poker, especially when playing at the lower limit tables, is being able to maximize your earnings versus recreational players.

The reason why this is so important is because these are the players who consistently make huge fundamental mistakes like playing too many hands, limping, calling too much, and so on. Therefore, their loss rates often far exceed those of any other players.

However, most modern poker theory these days focuses on how to beat the solid winning players instead. This is a backwards approach to learning the game, because no matter how good you are at poker, you are never going to turn a big profit against these players. They simply do not make enough big mistakes for this to happen.

In this article I am going to show you how you can start drastically increasing your winnings versus the players who are really going to make a noticeable difference to your bottom line at the poker tables, the recreational players.

1. Get Involved More

The biggest reason why most people do not maximize their winnings versus the recreational poker players is because they simply aren't involved in enough pots against them.

How do you start getting involved in more hands versus the recreational players? You start by raising them every time they limp. This is also called an 'isolation raise.'

You see, weak poker players like this absolutely love to limp in and see a 'cheap flop.' You need to start making it expensive for them instead.

Doing this will ensure that you get involved in more pots with them. You accomplish this by raising after they limp if you have anything even remotely playable at all. This includes hands like , , , , and the like. All of these hands are easily good enough to raise with when a recreational player limps.

Don't give these guys a free pass when they limp like most other poker players do. Your job is to get the rec player's chips faster than everybody else. And you do this by getting involved in as many pots as possible against them.

2. Get Position on Them

When you are using this isolation raise strategy, it is also vital that you get position on the recreational players. This makes it so much easier to get their chips after the flop.

Having position is important, because as you'll soon find out they are going to call you a fair amount of the time when you raise preflop. If you are in position after the flop, though, then this gives you so many more options to win the pot.

You can make a simple continuation bet when they check and often take it down. If you flop well, you can check behind and trap them. Or you can bluff them. It's completely up to you!

All of these various lines of attack are so much easier to pull off when you have position, because you get to see what they do first every single time.

Make sure that you do everything possible to get on the left of the weaker players. This will make isolating them and winning more pots against them so much easier.

3. Keep Your Foot on the Gas Pedal

The next thing you want to do is make sure that you keep hammering on the rec players every time they call you.

Texas Hold'em Casino World

This means you should be firing a continuation bet on the flop most of the time when they check. You should also follow this up on the turn a reasonable amount of the time if you have some sort of pair or decent draw. And if you actually have a really strong hand like top pair, two pair, trips or better, then you should simply just keep betting the entire time.

You want to keep your foot firmly on the gas pedal against weaker players, because this gives off the vibe to them that you are a wild and crazy player. It helps build a 'dynamic' between you and this player — that is, what each of you think of each other based on previous hands.

Always ask yourself this question: When you finally pick up a big hand versus one of the recreational players, who do you think they are most likely to pay off? That quiet guy who has been folding every hand for the last 30 minutes or you, the 'wild maniac,' who has been raising and bluffing them every hand?

I am sure you already know the answer to that question.

4. Don't Get Too Out of Line

Now while you want to be highly active against the recs and even bluff them a little bit, you don't want to take this too far, because the number one thing these players love to do is call. In fact, there is no bigger thrill in the game for them than putting on their sheriff's hat and catching you in a big bluff!

You never want to be running any huge double- or triple-barrel bluffs against a player like this. In fact most of the time if they call me on the flop, I am just going to give up if I have nothing by the turn.

You simply can't bluff a calling station. It is important to play aggressively against the weaker players, but also remember that you can't force them to fold.

You have to remain patient because when you do finally play a big pot against them, you are much more likely to go to showdown. And that means that you need to have the goods.

5. Show Them a Few Bluffs Early On

While you don't want to run any large multi-street bluffs against these players, my final tip ironically involves using plenty of small-scale bluffs early on when you first start playing against them. Furthermore, you want to let them know exactly what you are doing as well. By that I mean actually showing them the bluff.

The reason why this strategy is so effective is because early on when you first encounter a new player, that's the time they are going to give you the most credit when you bet. They will often fold the first several times when you bet or raise them if they have nothing.

Texas Hold'em Theory

By actually showing the recreational player your bluffs, this also helps create that narrative that you are a wild maniac who is trying to bluff every single hand. This will ensure that when you finally do make that big hand against them (an overpair, two pair, trips, etc.), you will get paid off in full.

Final Thoughts

Maximizing your winnings versus recreational poker players is absolutely vital to your success in today's games, especially at the lower limits. These are the players who consistently make huge fundamental mistakes like playing too many hands, limping too much, calling with any pair, and chasing every draw.

Texas Hold Em Theory Practice

Most of the other players simply won't make these large-scale mistakes, which is a big reason why you will never turn a huge profit against them. That's also why spending large amounts of time figuring out how to beat them is like trying to draw blood from a stone.

In order to increase your winnings versus the recreational players, make sure that you get position on them. Then start getting involved against them, raising every time they limp if you have anything even remotely playable.

After the flop continue with the aggression, especially on the flop. And make sure to show them a few bluffs early on as well. But be careful not to run any large multi-street bluffs, because they will often be looking for any reason to call you down.

When you put all of the pieces together like this, then it really just becomes a waiting game. Make a big hand and hit the jackpot.

No Limit Texas Hold'em Theory

Nathan 'BlackRain79' Williams is the author of the popular micro stakes strategy books Crushing the Microstakes, Modern Small Stakes, and The Microstakes Playbook. He also blogs regularly about all things related to the micros over at www.blackrain79.com.

^{Photo: 'Flush Draw” (adapted), Robin Corps, CC BY-SA 2.0.}

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